I read a very interesting article by Vernor Vinge, from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the San Diego State University: http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/singularity.html
The article, which was written in 1993, is somewhat old, but in my belief, more relevant than ever. The summary reads:
Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated. Some possible answers (and some further dangers) are presented.
The author discusses the meaning of super-intelligence and the singularity, and investigates potential implications of the event.
Super-intelligence may be defined as an intelligence greater than human intelligence, and one that can be artificially created, or caused (accidental discovery/creation of super-intelligence is not discussed, like the discovery of intelligent life on other planets).
I strongly recommend that you read the article. It has some very exciting and thought-provoking insights, as well as some earth-shattering conclusions.
After reading the article, I realized that I had already starting to note the emergence of one type of super-intelligence already – the Internet.
Imagine the most difficult problems of intelligence individual humans grasp with. For example, consider an individual scientist working in a particular field who runs into an obstacle. We are close to the point where he could “crowdsource or even cloudsource” his way through the problem.
This is vastly different than traditional groups of people, like scientific teams. I’m talking about something like what I can now do with programming questions: Utilize Google + StackOverflow to use the best that machines and human minds have to offer. Of course,
there’s currently no guarantee that the best minds will choose to work on my problems, or that the end result will further expand human knowledge – but I believe we are progressing towards this.
Further, online communities like Reddit are streamlining education and individual human evolution. The influence of a vast community with an above-average intelligence is that its constituents start evolving above-average intelligence. A person with a mild interest in Quantum Physics enters the community, interacts with others with knowledge/experience/intelligence beyond his own, and he/she in turn, becomes more knowledgeable, skilled.
Of course, there’s again no guarantee that the pursuits are ones which further human knowledge or intelligence (exhibit A: http://www.reddit.com/r/cats – a sub-reddit with pictures of cute cats – not that there’s anything wrong with that), and it’s even possible that many of these communities actually hamper the growth of intelligence. An example might be a community focused around the belief that cheeze is evil, and cheeze-makers are taking over the world via some top-secret conspiracy involving banks, secret hand-signs, and mind-controlled cows, etc. However, it is clear to me that the end result is generally positive. I believe instances like the middle-eastern revolutions for freedom may be emergent behavior, though I concede that this is highly speculative.
Imagine, however, that we start streamlining, and quantifying quality of communication online. We could use our collective skills to extract knowledge from the noise, wheat from the chaff. Any discussions could have measurable, objective gains. Very primitive systems to this end exist – the voting systems of reddit, StackOverflow, etc., however, these do not necessarily work well.
Incorrect, incomplete information often bubbles up instead of rationally sound, intelligent information. People with an agenda can create fake consensus, and influence the majority viewpoint. “Cheaters” can find ways to hack the community to further their own ends.
All of these reasons is why I call the present systems “primitive”. I do, however, believe that more sophisticated systems will evolve. When they do, we might start witnessing the birth of Oracle(s), where every question with an answer known to the human race gets answered, and sometimes, even ones that have not been answered yet. Some would say this is already so.
From this point, I can envision these systems evolving, and merging with other systems, possibly even “awakening”, as the author of the linked article has postulated.
I, for one, cannot wait to see where this goes.
